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Climate Change and the Potential for Conflict and Extreme Migration in the Andes: A Computational Approach for Interdisciplinary Modeling and Anticipatory Policy-Making

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dc.contributor.advisor Cioffi, Claudio
dc.contributor.author Magallanes, Jose Manuel
dc.creator Magallanes, Jose Manuel
dc.date.accessioned 2016-04-19T19:27:26Z
dc.date.available 2016-04-19T19:27:26Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/1920/10159
dc.description.abstract I present an agent-based model to support the thesis that extreme migration and social conflict can emerge by simply extending the current social and natural conditions, and by replicating simple mechanisms at the individual level. To carry out this work, every available information on water supply and demand has been collected and organized using official data sources, producing a baseline dated in 2011; and the basic demographics of the population has been implemented using the last official census (2007). Based on these data, many computations have been made to find, calibrate and represent the trends in population growth and water balance. For the basic mechanisms at the individual level, field work guided both by theoretical considerations and ethnographic findings has been done. A key assumption on the processing of information, not identified from the field work, has been introduced via a Bayesian belief updating mechanism.
dc.format.extent 215 pages
dc.language.iso en
dc.rights Copyright 2015 Jose Manuel Magallanes
dc.subject Public policy en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Agent-based modeling en_US
dc.subject Coupled Human-Natural systems en_US
dc.subject Migration en_US
dc.subject Social conflict en_US
dc.subject Social effects of climate change en_US
dc.title Climate Change and the Potential for Conflict and Extreme Migration in the Andes: A Computational Approach for Interdisciplinary Modeling and Anticipatory Policy-Making
dc.type Dissertation en
thesis.degree.level Doctoral en
thesis.degree.discipline Computational Social Science en
thesis.degree.grantor George Mason University en


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    Seeking to understand the human mind: how it came to be, how it relates to the electrochemical activities of networks of nerve cells in the brain, how it can be modeled on computers, and how it is a vital component of what we are.

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